MARTINGALE PLAYBOOK · TERMINAL

The Martingale method, explained.

A negative-progression staking system where you double your stake after every loss so a single eventual win recovers all prior losses plus one unit of profit. It originated in 18th-century France on even-money coin-toss and roulette wagers and takes its name from the French village of Martigues. Do not confuse it with the unrelated 20th-century probability-theory concept of a 'martingale' stochastic process, which was formalized by Paul Lévy in 1934.

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  • Best applied to near-coinflip markets (-110 moneyline, NBA spread, NHL puck line, NFL spread, UFC pick'em)
  • Requires a strict base stake (typically 2% of bankroll) and hard step cap (4-5 max)
  • Sample sequence at -110: $200 → $400 → $800 → $1,600 (bankroll needed: ~$3,000)
  • Bust risk grows exponentially with step count — always define a stop-loss
  • Variants: Classic (2x), Grand (2.5x), Great (3x), Mini (1.5x), D'Alembert (+1 unit)